ThermoFooty Documentation

Pre-registered natural-experiment test of the heat-aggression hypothesis on European soccer. Player aggression (red cards for violent conduct) and crowd violence (football-related arrests) as a function of the day-of-match temperature anomaly at the stadium, across the Big-5 European leagues 1970–2026 and the FIFA World Cup + UEFA Euro + Copa América + AFCON + AFC Asian Cup tournament panel.

The full design is locked at OSF (10.17605/OSF.IO/YZVAK) with an AsPredicted one-pager cross-post for the H1 confirmatory test (aspredicted.org/av2un9.pdf).

ThermoFooty is one chapter of the lab’s cross-species heat-aggression programme — see also ThermoStrife (human historical-uprisings track) and ThermoKourt (Drosophila behavioural-arena track).

User guide

• Getting started
  • Installation
  • Data root
  • Optional API keys
  • Verify the install
  • Next steps
• Pipeline overview (planned)
  • Stage 1 — Match data ingestion
  • Stage 2 — Lineup + per-player card ingestion (fbref)
  • Stage 3 — Crowd-violence arrests ingestion
  • Stage 4 — Stadium-day weather backfill
  • Stage 5 — Analysis-panel materialisation
  • Stage 6 — Hypothesis fits
  • Stage 7 — SOTA viz
• Methods
  • Identification — scheduled-fixture natural experiment
  • Primary estimator (H1)
  • Estimator stack — all delegated to reRandomStats
  • Multiple comparisons
  • What this design does NOT solve

Quick links

• Source: github.com/zerotonin/ThermoFooty

• Pre-registration (OSF): 10.17605/OSF.IO/YZVAK

• AsPredicted H1 one-pager: aspredicted.org/av2un9.pdf

• Companion code: ThermoStrife 10.5281/zenodo.20371612

• Statistics toolkit: reRandomStats v0.2.0 10.5281/zenodo.20387255